马尔可夫链及其在股市分析中的应用

本文运用马尔可夫链理论预测股票价格分析股市,提出了股价运行周期和投资收益的最大化理论,并建立其随机过程模型,使决策的长期效益趋于最优,通过实例检验,证明了此模型的可行性和实用性.     

Information flow between stock markets: A Koopman decomposition approach

Stock markets in the world are linked by complicated and dynamical relationships into a temporal network.Extensive works have provided us with rich findings from the topological properties and their evolutionary trajectories,but the underlying dynamical mechanism is still not in order.In the present work,we proposed a technical scheme to reveal the dynamical law from the temporal network.The index records for the global stock markets form a multivariate time series.One separates the series into segments and calculates the information flows between the markets,resulting in a temporal market network representing the state and its evolution.Then the technique of the Koopman decomposition operator is adopted to find the law stored in the information flows.The results show that the stock market system has a high flexibility,i.e.,it jumps easily between different states.The information flows mainly from high to low volatility stock markets.And the dynamical process of information flow is composed of many dynamic modes distribute homogenously in a wide range of periods from one month to several ten years,but there exist only nine modes dominating the macroscopic patterns.     

基金与基金组合投资

本根据组合证券投资理论了基金的投资原理,建立了基金管理决策模型与基金组合投资决策模型,并进行了静态分析和动态分析。     

Arithmetic returns for investment performance measurement

This paper introduces new money-weighted metrics for investment performance analysis, based on arithmetic means of holding period rates weighted by the investment’s market values. This approach generates rates of return which measure a fund’s or portfolio’s performance and a fund manager’s performance. It also enables to show that the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) is a weighted mean of holding period rates associated with interim values which differ from market values, so that value additivity is violated. The manager’s Arithmetic Internal Rate of Return (AIRR) is shown to be the true period equivalent of the cumulative Time Weighted Rate of Return (TWRR), whereas the period TWRR (a geometric return) provides a different ranking. The method is easily generalized for coping with varying benchmark rates. We also cope with the practical problem of estimating interim values whenever they are not available.     

Reserve stock models: Deterioration and preventive replenishment

Reserve stocks are needed in a wide spectrum of industries from strategic oil reserves to tactical (machine buffer) reserves in manufacturing. One important aspect under-looked in research is the effect of deterioration, where a reserve stock, held for a long time, may be depleted gradually due to factors such as spoilage, evaporation, and leakage. We consider the common framework of a reserve stock that is utilized only when a supply interruption occurs. Supply outage occurs randomly and infrequently, and its duration is random. During the down time the reserve is depleted by demand, diverted from its main supply. We develop optimal stocking policies, for a reserve stock which deteriorates exponentially. These policies balance typical economic costs of ordering, holding, and shortage, as well as additional costs of deterioration and preventive measures. Our main results are showing that (i) deterioration significantly increases cost (up to 5%) and (ii) a preventive replenishment policy, with periodic restocking, can offset some of these additional costs. One side contribution is refining a classical reserve stock model (Hansmann, 1962).     

Modeling and analysis of an agent-based model for Chinese stock market

We constructed an agent-based stock market model which concisely describe investors? heterogeneity and adaptability by introducing price sensitivity and feedback time. Under different parameters, the peak and fat-tail property of return distribution is produced and the obtained statistic values coincide with empirical results: the center peak exponents range from ?0.787 to ?0.661, and the tail exponents range from ?4.29 to ?2.37. Besides, long-term correlation in volatility is examined by DFA1 method, and the obtained exponent α is 0.803, which also coincides with the exponent of 0.78 found in real market.     

股市收益率的极限分布

本文提出了一个描述股市收益率与成交量变化率的关系的非线性统计模型.通过这个模型我们证明了收益率序列{rn}依参数不同分别依分布收敛于指数列维稳定分布和列维稳定分布.     

我国证券市场风险计量模型的构建

证券风险的计量准确与否，是证券组合理论能否有效运用的前提，在现有研究成果的基础上，结合我国证券市场的特点，选取“流通市值”作为影响我国证券风险的第二个因素，建立了证券风险计量模型，并使用统计软件对模型的适用性进行了检验．     

On a General Theorem of Set Theory Leading to the Gibbs, Bose-Einstein, and Pareto Distributions as well as to the Zipf-Mandelbrot Law for the Stock Market

The notion of density of a finite set is introduced. We prove a general theorem of set theory which refines the Gibbs, Bose-Einstein, and Pareto distributions as well as the Zipf law.